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A new email has been sent to the email address containing a link to re-verify your credentials. Verification Accepted. Figure 3 What was the result from a bad earnings date? Timing of Earnings Releases Those who follow global corporate earnings are aware of one glaring difference between US companies as compared to the rest of the world.
While the SEC requires US companies to file earnings results quarterly, a majority of global governing bodies require semi-annual filings twice per year. As Figure 4 indicates, the respondents favor releasing earnings quarterly. Figure 6 The most popular reasons were that the respondents prefer virtual and secondly there were not any conferences in to date that met their needs, as shown in Figure 7.
Figure 7 Our take: Although Covid was the primary driver of why conferences went virtual, it has shifted the way people view in-person conferences. Our corporate event data also reveal a total of conferences which includes investor forums, seminars, business summits, and trade shows impacting all 11 sectors in Q2. Reading Corporate Body Language is a critical part of analyzing information shared by executives at corporate conferences.
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A catalyst opportunity is when there is anticipation that an individual company is about to go through a significant event. That might be a change of management or a restructuring of the balance sheet, for example. It could be a plan to spin off a slow-growing division and reinvest the proceeds in the fast-growing parts of the business.
Maybe the firm finally resolved some long-running litigation or regulatory issue. Perhaps an activist investor is building a big stake and looking to shake things up. That spread generally reflects, among other things, the risk that the deal fails to go through. Merger spreads tend to be wider and more volatile when there is more uncertainty in the market and more regulatory scrutiny around deals, potentially creating more opportunity for active trading.
We hear more and more anecdotes from our colleagues in Equity Research about companies planning some kind of strategic shake-up. We see a growing number of activists building stakes and writing letters to encourage change—and increasing willingness among board members and other shareholders to back them, as they seek their own sources of potential excess return in a difficult market. Dry Powder Do we see a lot of risk arbitrage opportunities, too? An uncertain and volatile market is not a favorable backdrop for a merger.
In the U. That said, there are more deals being announced than we would normally anticipate at this stage of the cycle and in this kind of uncertainty, including some sizable ones. Selling divisions and acquiring struggling competitors are among the ways businesses can attempt to capitalize on an economic downturn, after all.
In addition, we are seeing private equity strategies that have entered the top of this cycle with an unusually large pile of dry powder to spend on public-to-private acquisitions. Activist Investing An activist investor attempts to be the catalyst for change in a company, which is typically underperforming and has fallen out of favor with the market. The active engagement of the investor and implementation of recommended corporate changes can lead to high returns.
Distressed Investing Distressed investors purchase steeply discounted securities, most often in the form of corporate bonds e. Distressed Investing: Conversely, distressed investing performs best in recessionary periods, as more companies become prone to financial distress. The market attempts to price in various factors, such as the chance of closure, the anticipated synergies , and control premium , which creates a period of uncertainty in the market, i.
The market price tends to remain slightly discounted to the announced offer price, which reflects the remaining uncertainty on the close of the acquisition. An event-driven investor could analyze the potential acquisition to determine how to maximize profits from the opportunity, with consideration towards factors such as the following: Acquisition Rationale.
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