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Past performance should not be viewed as an indicator of future results. Margin trading involves interest charges and heightened risks, including the potential to lose more than invested funds or the need to deposit additional collateral. Before trading on margin, customers are advised to determine whether this type of trading is appropriate for them in light of their respective investment objective, experience, risk tolerance and financial situation.
For details, please see Commission and Fees. All types of investments are risky and investors may suffer losses. Past performance of investment products does not guarantee future results. Electronic trading also poses risks to investors. The responsiveness of the trading system may vary due to market conditions, system performance, and other factors. Account access and trade execution may be affected by factors such as market volatility.
No content on the website shall be considered as a recommendation or solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, futures, or other financial products. Kaufman worked as a portfolio manager and senior quantitative analyst for Graham Capital Management, a hedge fund with a focus on managed futures trading strategies.
Kaufman also advises the Aquantum Group and collaborates with the company in the design of systematic trading programs and indices. Glenn Neely's Neely River trading technology assists in creating lower-risk trading strategies, with an emphasis on capital preservation.
His now-famous NEoWave forecasting methodology provides a precise, step-by-step, logical assessment of market structure, which typically leads to more accurate forecasts. He has traded in the U. He is an internationally published analyst of technical analysis SeekingAlpha.
Currently, Michael is based in San Francisco and continues to analyze, trade, and research the markets. The eye of a storm is at the center where there is calm. In the midst of the many economic storms currently swirling around the globe, making decisions is often swayed by crowd behavior or panic as prices race in both directions.
Opportunities present themselves during chaotic, panic driven times. As a Market Maker on the San Francisco, Amsterdam, and London options trading floors, Michael studied the psychology both employed and self-employed by the most successful traders.
Most if not all successful traders have the ability to stand within the chaos and pull out opportunities without succumbing to the panic itself. Several times in the fall of , in a market that had seen the average share of stock drop for almost 6 years since December , he predicted on KWHY that a major market bottom would occur during the week of December , The exact Dow low of As a result of that spectacular and well noted forecast, publication of Stockmarket Cycles began in July of In , he began a long string of appearances on FNN, the nation's first financial network.
He made several notable forecasts on FNN, and his forecast for a very important market bottom on January 24, , was widely noted for several weeks prior to that date. Harry begins every day in the pre-market, analyzing premarket percent gainers and losers, creating a relevant focus list and webinar presentation to determine which stocks may be best for potential day trades, issuing buy and short alerts, during his presentation.
In addition, Harry is on after the close, monitoring after-hours percent gainers. Samuels joined US global investment bank JP Morgan on Wall Street for 15 years, trading currencies and managing professional traders, using the proven theories of Elliott Wave analysis which she teaches today to retail and institutional traders. Jody has trained thousands of new and seasoned traders how to use Elliott Wave as an overlay to any strategy to spot high probability trade setups in order to make more profitable trades and waste less time.
Kosmider and has been publishing the free Crowd Forecast Newsletter since September Price also speaks regularly to investment audiences nationwide. He is a stock market expert who uses Quant data and technical analysis to identify sound companies at attractive prices with low risk and potential for capital appreciation.
Wally believes the stock market is NOT random and has consistently timed many of the market tops and bottoms. He has worked in almost every facet of the trading industry and continues to be a prolific developer of trading systems. He has developed proprietary trading programs for numerous clients and brokerage firms. Joe now works directly with clients and brokerage firms designing custom trading systems. He has been a trading system design consultant since and consults with traders on how to develop systems using state of the art system automation software.
STC develops state-of-the-art mental training software for a wide variety of areas, ranging from business to sports to business skills to trading. After having spent time with Paine Webber as a stock broker, Mr. Hallett has developed numerous successful startup companies, including the CTA investment firm of Hallett Commodities, Inc. His high-profile style resulted in him being a frequent guest of the Financial News Network and culminated in his popular radio talk show, "Risky Business", which had a strong 5-year run.
The Disciplined Trader Trading and Support Program has tightened up the trading discipline of thousands of traders from 16 different countries. Through good years and bad Larry has survived recording and teaching his market wisdom. Larry is a best selling author featured in our Books section. You can find most of the books Larry has written there. He has witnessed firsthand the monumental failure of the highly-advertised "buy and hold" strategies and "asset allocation rebalancing" strategies typically sold to the public.
Robert believes investors deserve a better alternative, so he started this firm to use his time-tested research to help investors recover from the failures of the establishment investment firms and prosper going forward--no matter what the stock market may do.
Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, , which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Over the years, he has written papers on investment strategies, research methodologies, fundamental indicators, and chart pattern interpretation.
She is an expert day trader, swing trader and active investor with a precise approach to Daily Income Style and Wealth Generation Trading, delivering results in any market environment. The strategies she teaches in her courses and her live daily approach to trading provide you with the understanding and the tools to take your trading to the next level. She personally manages her own accounts and shares her market knowledge and trades LIVE everyday with her clients worldwide.
She is a contributor to many financial media outlets and a well respected technical analyst known for her precision in determining market conditions and pinpointing market direction with the highest accuracy. Larry is a year veteran of the finance industry who began his trading career on a full-time basis in The Astro-Trend letter utilizes advanced technical and cyclical analysis to forecast about 30 futures related markets. Dan began his trading career on the floor of the CBOE as an equity options market maker.
Dan also contributes to financial media such as TheStreet. I wasted a lot of time and money and did not realize that the missing piece of the puzzle was right in front of me, hiding in plain sight! Primo reached the pinnacle of his floor-trading career when he became a Stock Exchange Specialist for Donaldson, Lufkin, and Jennrette. As a Specialist he was responsible for making markets in over 50 stocks, a position Primo held for 9 years.
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Had a trader assumed that the rising MACD was a positive sign, they may have exited their short trade , missing out on additional profit. Or they may have taken a long trade, even though the price action showed a significant downtrend and no signs of a reversal no higher swing highs or higher swing lows to indicate an end to the downtrend.
That doesn't mean divergence can't or won't signal the occasional reversal, but it must be taken with a grain of salt after a big move. Since divergence occurs after almost every big move, and most big moves aren't immediately reversed right after, if you assume that divergence, in this case, means a reversal is coming, you could get yourself into a lot of losing trades.
For example, if the price moves above a prior high, traders will watch for the MACD to also move above its prior high. If it doesn't, that's a divergence or a traditional warning signal of a reversal. This signal is fallible and related to the problem discussed above. A lower MACD high-price level shows the price didn't have the same velocity it had last time it moved higher it may have moved less, or it may have moved slower , but that doesn't necessarily indicate a reversal. As discussed above, a sharp price move will cause a large move in the MACD, larger than what is caused by slower price moves.
An asset's price can move higher or lower, slowly, for very long periods of time. If this occurs after a steeper move more distance covered in less time , then the MACD will show divergence for much of the time the price is slowly relative to the prior sharp move marching higher. If a trader assumes a lower MACD high means the price will reverse, a valuable opportunity may be missed to stay long and collect more profit from the slow er march higher.
Or worse, the trader may take a short position into a strong uptrend, with little evidence to support the trade except for an indicator which isn't useful in this situation. The chart pictured above shows a downtrend in APPL stock. The downtrend is caused by sharp downward moves, followed by slower downward moves.
The sharp price moves always cause much bigger downdrafts in the MACD than slower price moves. It results in divergence when the next price wave isn't as sharp, but in no way indicates a reversal. MACD divergence was present this whole day, yet the price dropped all day. If monitoring divergence, an entire day of profits on the downside would have been missed. Another problem with watching for this type of divergence is that it often isn't present when an actual price reversal occurs.
Therefore, we have an indicator which provides many false signals divergence occurs, but price doesn't reverse , but also fails to provide signals on many actual price reversals price reverses when there is no divergence. Missed a reversal or breakout? Hence, this approach is worth paying attention to. The timeframe is H1 or higher. A signal to buy by the MACD divergence For a signal to buy to appear, the following conditions must be met: The price chart must demonstrate two bottoms, the second one of them being at least 20 points pips in 5-digit trading lower than the first one; The MACD must show a divergence looking as two bottoms with the second one being higher than the first one; The second MACD bottom must give signs of the divergence coming to an end by the low of the next one or two bar s on the indicator being higher than the lowest bar of those forming the second bottom.
An example of a signal to buy by the MACD divergence : A signal to sell by the trading strategy For a signal to sell to appear, the following conditions must be fulfilled: The price chart must demonstrate two tops, the second one of them being at least 20 points pips in 5-digit trading higher than the first one; The indicator must demonstrate two tops, the second one of which being lower than the first one - this will make a MACD divergence; In the second high of the MACD one or two bars must become lower than the previous one.
Though the entry conditions will have normally be fulfilled by the moment a local extreme appears on the chart, so you could hide the SL behind it, stick to the points rule. This strategy does not presume transferring the position to the breakeven or following the position. Hence, this strategy will hardly suit those traders who are used to grasping at every opportunity to decrease risks and protect their profit.
Placing a Take Profit is neither required.
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The Signal Line. The trader can choose what period length EMA to use for the Signal Line however 9 is the most common. The MACD histogram takes that difference and plots it into an easily readable histogram. The difference between the two lines oscillates around a Zero Line. When MACD is negative and the histogram value is decreasing, then downside momentum is increasing. First one must consider that the Signal Line is essentially an indicator of an indicator.
That being said, on the occasions where the MACD Line crosses above or below the Signal Line, that can signify a potentially strong move. The strength of the move is what determines the duration of Signal Line Crossover. Understanding and being able to analyze move strength, as well as being able to recognize false signals, is a skill that comes with experience. Simply put, divergence is when the MACD and actual price are not in agreement.
The movement of price can provide evidence of the current trend, however changes in momentum as evidenced by the MACD can sometimes precede a significant reversal. Bearish Divergence is, of course, the opposite. Summary What makes the MACD such a valuable tool for technical analysis is that it is almost like two indicators in one. It can help to identify not just trends, but it can measure momentum as well. It takes two separate lagging indicators and adds the aspect of momentum which is much more active or predictive That kind of versatility is why it has been and is used by trader's and analysts across the entire spectrum of finance.
Despite MACD's obvious attributes, just like with any indicator, the trader or analyst needs to exercise caution. There are just some things that MACD doesn't do well which may tempt a trader regardless. Most notably, traders may be tempted into using MACD as a way to find overbought or oversold conditions. The same principle works in reverse as prices are falling. As price action top part of the screen accelerates to the downside, the MACD histogram in the lower part of the screen makes new lows.
Indeed, most traders use the MACD indicator more frequently to gauge the strength of the price move than to determine the direction of a trend. One of the most common setups is to find chart points at which price makes a new swing high or a new swing low , but the MACD histogram does not, indicating a divergence between price and momentum.
The chart below illustrates a typical divergence trade: A typical negative divergence trade using a MACD histogram. The price movements make a new swing high, but the MACD histogram is unable to exceed its previous high of 0. The histogram reached this high. The divergence is a signal that the price is about to reverse at the new high and, as such, it is a signal for the trader to enter into a short position.
Prices frequently burst higher, or lower, as market makers trigger stops to match the supply and demand in the order flow. The chart below demonstrates a typical divergence fakeout , which has frustrated scores of traders over the years: A typical divergence fakeout. Strong divergence is illustrated at the bottom of the chart by the vertical line, but traders who set their stops at swing highs would have been taken out of the trade before it turned in their direction.
Since the MACD histogram is a derivative of price and is not price itself, this approach is, in effect, the trading version of mixing apples and oranges. To do, so a trader may take a partial short position the entry. The trader then would exit the trade only if the high of the MACD histogram exceeds its previous swing high. If, on the other hand, the MACD histogram does not generate a new swing high, the trader then adds to their initial position, continually achieving a higher average price for the short.
Currency traders are uniquely positioned to take advantage of this strategy, because the larger the position, the larger the potential gains once the price reverses. In the forex FX market, you can implement this strategy with any size of the position and not have to worry about influencing price.
Traders can execute transactions as large as , units or as little as 1, units for the same typical spread of points in the major pairs. In effect, this strategy requires a trader to average up as prices temporarily move against them. This is typically not considered a good strategy. Many trading books have derisively dubbed such a technique as " adding to your losers.
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