This was found looking at data on over 20, college basketball games and finding out how often the favorite or underdog wins outright at that number see the table on expected win percentage below for even more detail. What this gives us is what the true money line of a game is given a fair market e.
It is obviously possible for these probabilities to change year to year, but with over 1, games sampled at each common line, we are confident that our true money line pricing is accurate. Another way to use this to your advantage is when picking upsets in the tournament. I definitely use this trick for my own NCAA bracket predictions. The numbers represent pricing based on a fair market, meaning there would be no advantage to the books. Depending on both the spread and the book you use, a books pricing will incorporate an edge to the money line price.
Below is the formula for calculating the profit and return for decimal odds of 1. Return is how much profit you made plus your original wager amount Profit is how much money you won by placing your wager How to Read Fractional Odds for NCAAB Used primarily in the United Kingdom and Ireland, fractions represent the profit you would earn for a successful bet.
The sportsbooks assess the two teams, determine an underdog and a favorite, and then release the moneyline odds. NCAAB Point Spread The oddsmakers at betting sites will assess the weaknesses and strengths of the teams, focusing on offensive and defensive stats, recent results, head-to-head matchups, injuries and so on. They determine which team is stronger, and they assign a points handicap to that team. If both teams are deemed to be evenly matched, there will not be a point spread, and you can simply bet on either team to win moneyline.
All you have to do is estimate how many total points will be scored in a specific college basketball game. The sportsbooks will release a total points line on each game. If you believe the game will see points or fewer, you should bet on the under.
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