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The next five teams Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern and Wisconsin all project to have odds between two and five percent to win the Big Ten regular season title. The odds for the remaining five Big Ten teams are currently less than 0. The win distribution in Table 3 suggests that the eventual Big Ten champion will most likely have a record of 31 percent , but a final record of 26 percent or 20 percent are still both plausible.
Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Jan. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since early December. Here, I calculate the projected seeds for each team based on the weighted probabilities of all , simulation results as well as the seeds in the situation where the projected favorite wins all remaining Big Ten games.
In both cases, the top-four seeds and the coveted double byes would go to Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan State. The current numbers give the Spartans about a 57 percent chance to secure a top-four seed. As for the eventual winner of the Big Ten Tournament, those odds are shown below in Table 5.
As a general rule, these odds will track with the overall Kenpom adjusted efficiency margins. Purdue still has the best overall odds 32 percent. Figure 2 below gives the updated Big Ten strength of schedule data. Figure 2: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule both overall left and of the remaining conference games right.
At the close of the non-conference season, Michigan State still grades out with the third-easiest full Big Ten schedule behind only Ohio State and Indiana see the left panel of Figure 2. That said, the Spartans also opened with two fairly light conference opponents in December.
Here, I would also like to make a brief comment about the Michigan Wolverines. Despite the fact that Michigan opened the season with a lofty top-five ranking, the Maize and Blue have struggled and are off to a record with no Kenpom top wins. As Table 2 above shows, Michigan is only expected to win a total of 11 conference games, which brings its projected overall record to just This record would place the Wolverines squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble and very likely on the wrong side of it, considering the lack of quality wins.
Furthermore, the numbers in Table 3 suggest that there is a 43 percent chance that Michigan posts only a conference record, or worse. Figure 2 helps to explain why things look so bleak. Michigan has the most difficult remaining conference schedule. That biasing will disappear soon. In other words, the real situation for the Wolverines is likely even worse than the numbers above suggest.
Figure 3 below is a plot of Kenpom adjusted defensive efficiency points allowed per possessions on the y-axis versus the Kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency points scored per possessions on the x-axis. The adjusted efficiency margins form diagonal lines on the plot, as this is defined as the difference between the offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Figure 3: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Jan. Figure 3 contains efficiency data for four separate sets of teams, both past and present. The small blue diamonds show the pre-tournament data for the last 19 teams to win the national title. The red triangles denote the teams in that currently have efficiency numbers that fall into the championship zone.
The large green circles represent the profiles of past MSU teams, while the smaller green circles and lines represent the efficiency evolution of the current Spartan team over time since the beginning of the season, according to Kenpom data. The error bars and light green oval represent the historical uncertainty i.
Then, I thought that the Spartans might have found calmer waters. Most recently, I speculated that the Green and White were stuck in the doldrums. As the losses continue to accumulate, punctuated most recently with the blow-out loss at Iowa , I no longer feel that the Spartans are lost at sea. No, I fear that the situation is more dire than that. I fear instead that they are lost in space. The current streak of losing five of the last six feels dark, suffocating, and no one knows which way is up anymore.
Worse yet, there is an event horizon visible in the distance. If the Spartans get too close, they will cross the point of no return and a cherished year NCAA Tournament streak will be lost forever. It is unbelievable that we even need to talk about that considering where the Spartans were just a month ago, but here we are. So, how bad are things, really? How much do Michigan State fans need to worry about the unthinkable? Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb.
The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 2. Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. Iowa has made a move up to fifth place, a fraction of a win ahead of Rutgers, with Michigan and Michigan State about a half game back of the Scarlet Knights.
Indiana is more than a game behind the Michiganders. While it likely feels to Michigan State fans that they will never win a game again, there is still a 60 percent chance that the Spartans finish at or better and a 21 percent chance that they win at least three of their final four games.
Table 3 below gives the updated odds to at least share the Big Ten regular season title as of Feb. Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. Consistent with Table 2, the race looks like it will come down to Purdue and Wisconsin who have a 65 and 57 percent chance to win the regular season title.
Incidentally, those two teams will play each other in Madison on Tuesday, March 1. The winner of that game will likely clinch at least a share of the championship. Note also that the math is still split on whether Purdue or Wisconsin will win out and claim the title at In general, there is a 62 percent chance that the eventual winner does not have to share the title, a 24 percent chance that two teams will share the title and a 14 percent chance that it is a three-team or more tie.
Big Ten Tournament and Strengths of Schedule If the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 22 Big Ten games left on the full schedule. Fortunately, we can use projected point spreads and simulations to get a sneak peek on how the Big Ten Tournament seeding might play out. Table 4 below summarizes the odds for each team to earn each seed. Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb 26, The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update.
As the end of the season approaches, the seeding for the Big Ten Tournament is starting to take shape. The top four seeds are fixed with about 90 percent certainty.
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MSU football's (very tough) path to victory vs. OSU; MSU basketball recruiting news; Five best bets
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