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You could make a case for saying Sizing Europe would have won that day if ridden less forcibly, but jumping is his biggest asset, and while holding him up would help him get the trip, it could be negated by not using his jumping to full effect. Both those tries at 3 miles coincided with soft ground, and with the ground likely to ride better tomorrow he might finally get his chance to win over this trip.
It would also be a stretch to think Sizing Europe is still as good as he was then. First Lieutenant has numerous top class efforts on his CV over this trip. I always thought decent ground was vital to him, but yet one of his career best effort came in last seasons Lexus Chase at Leopardstown when after getting the better of Flemenstar he got nailed late by Tidal Bay. That run showed he was more flexible than I thought, but he is still a little better on a better surface.
In his last 7 races First Lieutenant has run to a Racing Post rating of or better on 6 of them. Not so for First Lieutenant. He has won on his first run back the last two years, both times at Down Royal, so there is a good chance he will show up on his A game. Mount Benbulben was a bit frustrating over fences last season, that is until he came good with a very impressive victory in the grade 1 staying novice at Punchestown.
The problem up to then had been his jumping. Firstly on left handed tracks he jumped out to his right quite badly, and then when he went right handed at Fairyhouse he made a bad mistake 3 out. At Punchestown though everything went right and he showed what he could do. He meets much better horses tomorrow, but he clearly has the scope to improve enough. The problem might be if the ground is good to soft. His last 9 runs have been on soft or heavy ground, and the last time he raced on faster than that, he ran below his best at Cheltenham over hurdles.
Like with any graded race, course and distance goes a long way. Seven of the last 16 winners had raced at Down Royal before, with 12 of the last 16 having won a race at least 3 miles over fences before. Thirteen of the last sixteen winners had won at least five times over fences before, with nine of the last sixteen arriving here with Grade 1 Chase to their name. Outlander - now ten years old, joined another 11 winners of the last 16 who were aged eight or older when winning the JNwine.
Popular rider Ruby Walsh also has a good record here, with four wins to his name. This year's market is dominated by horses owned by Gigginstown House Stud. Rewards valid for 30 days. SMS verification required. Only deposits via cards will qualify. Play Safe. See full terms below. Only deposits made using cards will qualify for this promotion.
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